Aquiles Thursday Soccer

Aquiles · Jun 23, 2005

My double today:

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width=440 bgColor=#80b6b6 border=0><TBODY><TR class=wt><TD>NORWAY: 1 Division</TD><TD align=right></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE style="WIDTH: 440px; HEIGHT: 38px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=440 border=1><TBODY><TR bgColor=#e4ede5><TD width=35>18:00</TD><TD width=25></TD><TD align=right width=140>Stabek </TD><TD id=res4 width=45>- : -</TD><TD align=left width=140> Mandalskameratene</TD><TD class=rd id=det4 width=55>Pick: Stabek</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width=440 bgColor=#80b6b6 border=0><TBODY><TR class=wt><TD>ITALY: Serie B</TD><TD align=right></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=440 border=1><TBODY><TR bgColor=#e4ede5><TD width=35>20:30</TD><TD width=25></TD><TD align=right width=140>Perugia </TD><TD id=res10 width=45>- : -</TD><TD align=left width=140> Torino</TD><TD class=rd id=det10 width=55>Pick: Under 2.5 G</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
2 teams parlay @ 2.1 -- 10 Units

Aquiles · Jun 23, 2005

any comments are welkome!

AFLGuru · Jun 23, 2005

Are you a clone of Jet Riggs? I'm just wondering... I mean, you're doing nothing but laying incredible chalk as well, first on Stabaek, and then again on under 2.5 goals in that Serie B game... Pinny's got under 2 at like -120, so what was under 2.5? -190? Something like that?

DON'T parlay... parlaying is a bad idea in itself, especially when you're parlaying tons of chalk. You're handing the books money WAY more often than not, particularly in soccer. In a sport like tennis, chalk is a lot more predictable... as how often does Roger Federer lose in the 1st round of a tournament? Not often enough to make me afraid of him the entire first week at Wimbledon. We get caught up in these numbers like "wow, such and such a team is -200... that's a free 50% on my dollar!" Of course, we all know, especially in soccer or any other 3-way betting event, that these teams aren't winning the games 2 out of 3 times at -200.

But back to this Staebaek game in specific, you're laying a lot of chalk on a team that hasn't lost a game yet. Last season, Start when through the first division and hardly ever lost a game (in fact, I'm not sure if they did.... not looking up the stats right now)... but by season's end, you were getting anything better than -500 on them at home and -250 on the road. You think the books were losing each time they took home another game? Heck no! Every time they took home another game they suckered more money into a worse number to bet at. And then towards the end of the season, they ran across a team with squat to play for at home, and drew. Sure the books made MORE than enough back on that game.

My point here is that -350 is the start of a disaster from a bettors standpoint. Sure, the likelihood says that they're going to win this game and win it with ease (likely 2-0 or so), in soccer, you must SCORE to win. Guarantee you in more games than you think, especially in a lower division setting, Staebaek's going to be held scoreless. They were pretty crappy in the Tipplegean last year, though if memory serves, they ended up getting relegated in the last few games of the season when Viking held onto their spot, and I'm sure have lost many players due to lack of funding from not being in the top division.... and when talent starts getting this thin, you shouldn't be laying -350 on anyone, as NO ONE is that much better than anyone else, home, away, or on the moon.

Markie Mark... you've had a lot more experience with this than I have... I'm on the right track, correct?

THEJET · Jun 23, 2005

:grandmais I'm so loving this! :manwh:

AFLGuru · Jun 23, 2005

Dunno what you're loving... The fact that there are people out there making the same bet you did? If no one bet the freakin' game, the odds wouldn't be near -400 on Pinnacle... feel sharp if you want. Have fun.

Aquiles · Jun 23, 2005

Mate, i´m from Portugal and i have some problems with english language. So i will try to understand your all message and answer.

AFLGuru said:
Are you a clone of Jet Riggs? I'm just wondering... I mean, you're doing nothing but laying incredible chalk as well, first on Stabaek, and then again on under 2.5 goals in that Serie B game... Pinny's got under 2 at like -120, so what was under 2.5? -190? Something like that?

First of all i´m european and usually post at european PRIVATE foruns with excellent performance at Portuguese soccer.
Since last Dec i start to have american friends and start to bet USA sports too. Now i come to USA foruns to increase a little with your knowledge and understand a little more about your all sports.
I like basket since i´m young but games like MLB, Cricket, NHL, NFL.... i havent on tv.

Actually i bet USA sports at Pinnacle or VipSports but these bookies are both bad to bet Soccer. So i place all my soccer bets at european bookies like Pointbet, Gamebookers, BetandWin, Betfair, Eurobet, Globet, William Hill, ...., ..., ...., ....., ...., ....
If you want you can check here almost all the bookies that have Under 2.5 goals for the Italian game and see the odd.

http://www.betbrain.com/viewer/Football-Italy-Serie_B_2004_2005/detail/eventId/1420998/betTypeId/4/sportId/1/site/0?&oddsdisplay=3

I´m not a clone of anyone! We have 5 hours differencial and i only post my bets after wake up. Yesterday and today i have similar plays as Jet, nothing special because both play the biggest favourites in two days with short games.

I started post my soccer picks at other american forum some days ago and just start here yesterday but, if you want i can send you links with my posts last 7 or more days and you can see if i´m a clone or no.

AFLGuru · Jun 23, 2005

I was just making fun with relating you to Jet... All meant in good humor.

THEJET · Jun 23, 2005

Aquiles, relax! You'll learn to only give GUFOO one paragragh, he's not worth two lines beyond that. He's so mad that he can't do what we do, that it's killing him! I mean, he caps the arena football league! LOL............So don't worry about that little p_ss ant. You're doing great!

Jet.

Aquiles · Jun 23, 2005

AFLGuru said:
I was just making fun with relating you to Jet... All meant in good humor.

Sorry mate, as i said i´m bad in english.

Ok i think i understand now your message and i´m with you.
I come to american sports because i like high odds.
Usually i dint bet under 1.50 (-200) so i use small odds (biggest favourite or bankers) to increase medium odds.
In leagues like English, Spanish, Italian 1, French, German or Brasilian i have lots of contacts and it´s usually bet on dogs with knowledge.
When all these leagues start you will see that my picks will be for singles and with odds up -200.